Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Chinese response to american default is limited

  There is not much assets that China could repossess or nationalize from the united states in China. Annual american investment in China is a very low figure. Between 1 and 3 billion a year. China holds nearly 1 trillion in us treasury bonds. The united states would have to invest between 333 and 1000 years in China in order for China to have enough assets to nationalize to cover the difference.

  The only thing China could do is sell the bonds to some other foreign country to see if they are able to collect on the maturity date. Even after a loan has defaulted, banks still sell loan agreements to one another to see how well the next bank is able to collect. If China is truly concerned about this issue, then China should sell the bonds before the us defaults rather than later.

  Do not misunderstand. Its not that I assume that the united states is powerful, thus China is powerless to collect on american debt. Its just that defaulting on a debt is a national sovereign right. Countries default all the time. Spain defaulted on its debts 4 times during the 1500s, Argentina defaulted on its loans to the world bank and then got fresh loans from the IMF. If China ever became an international debtor, China could also exercise that sovereign right.

  Remember, a bond is just a paper asset. Its not a real physical asset.

  There are previous posts on this issue. Most of it centering around how real assets like physical commodities are the most secure reserves. 

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