Thursday, February 17, 2011

China's economy isnt dependant on foreign trade

    There is about 39 trillion Yuan in the Chinese money supply. That is about 30,000 Yuan per Chinese. In order for there to be 10 percent nominal GDP growth the money supply needs to be increased to 43 trillion Yuan or 33,000 Yuan per Chinese. If foreigners increase their money supply through quantitative easing or fractional reserve lending and use that liquidity to purchase Chinese goods, then that money would enter into China to boost China's domestic money supply.

  If that export surplus is equal to 4 trillion Yuan, then that would contribute to about 10 percent GDP growth to the Chinese GDP. If China fails to export anything and still needs 10 percent GDP growth. That increase in the money supply would have to come domestically. That means PBOC would have to increase quantitative easing and fractional reserve lending by about 4 trillion Yuan. And that would produce the 10 percent nominal growth it needs.

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