Sometimes we focus on one factor instead of the other things that were not equal and assume that one factor was causation. Appreciation of the RMB would no doubt increase purchasing power and reduce inflation in China.
But an even more important factor is that China's money supply is incredible. The Money supply in China and thus its GDP quadruples every 10 yrs? PBOC prints and lends an incredible amount of money every year. And that is why China experiences so much inflation. The other big contributor is that so many Chinese goods are exported instead of consumed at home, that while PBOC may increase the money supply, there is not an equal volume of goods and services to show for it.
If China prints 10 RMB and produces 10 widgets as a result of that new money. That increases both GDP and stabilizes inflation. But if those 10 widgets are exported, there is no widget that can be used to suppress domestic consumer prices thus all you get is the 10 RMB and thus 10 RMB worth of inflation.
I am not arguing against Chinese monetary policy. I demand China further accelerates its money supply. China has not fully maximized its production frontier, salaries are still undervalued globally. China would need 1000 % inflation just to catch up to western prices.
The sooner China experiences inflation, the faster wages will rise and the more stuff China is able to produce. People respond to fiat money. If PBOC called me in the morning and said, I will pay you 150 RMB every day to come to work from Monday to Friday. Id say sure. And I will pay you an additional 150 to come in on Saturday. And I might say, I value my Saturdays. And the PBOC responds, how about 300 RMB to come in on Saturday. And I might respond OK.
And businesses and corporations respond the same way. If consumer prices do not experience inflation, they dont have incentive to produce that additional widget. They have no incentive to upgrade, deploy new machinery or employ more people.
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